Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

To follow up from the previous post, nothing happened on September 16, save more vocal calls for Malaysia Day to be recognized as a public holiday or true national day. Anwar issued a couple of deadlines to Badawi, and the latter ignored him. Anwar repeatedly said he had the 31 Barisan MPs required to form the government, and asked for the public's patience while he makes this happen in a legal, lawful way. His supporters, of which I am one, believed that he would fulfill his promise, and appreciated the cautionary way he was approaching the volatile situation.

But I have to wonder about his strategy with the deadlines. He said that the Prime Minister "must" meet with him because he insisted he had the support of the majority of the MPs. Did he not have a Plan B? What if Badawi refused to meet him, which was exactly what happened? What then? The result is the fence-sitters see Anwar's words as empty talk, cakap kosong. And supporters like me, are starting to lose faith that he will actually form government, in light of recent developments.

Before the Raya break, Badawi declared that he would make an announcement on a transition plan by Oct 9th. Instead of handing over power in mid-2010, it was widely expected that he would do so in March 2009, the new date for the UMNO presidential elections previously scheduled for December this year. At the press conference some hours ago, he did not disappoint.

A couple of things he said stood out, to me.

"The party BN still leads, BN is still the party that forms the government..."

Translation: Take that, Anwar. Let's see you and Pakatan Rakyat try to form a government now. People will kasi can to Najib in the early days, just like they did to me. Those 31 MPs you may or may not have will probably rethink their decision to jump ship now.

"I know I would not be around until the year 2020. If I am still around, I would be 80 years old, and nobody would want an 80-year-old man hanging around."

Translation: Shut up, Dr M.

In the 5 months that Badawi has left, he has promised to reform the police and judiciary. Analysts agree he needs to grab this chance to leave his mark on Malaysia. I believe he can do that if he abolishes the ISA. But will he have the guts to do so? His track record shows that whatever reforms we've had came about from his inaction, rather than his actions (he didn't use the full corrupt election tactics of Dr M's era; he didn't muzzle the newspapers as Dr M did).

Then we have the prospect of a Najib Tun Razak administration. The future for reform is bleak if this man takes over. And it really does not seem as if there's anyone to stop him. Muhyiddin? I don't think he's anywhere near as popular nor does he have a support base as solid as Najib's. Tengku Razaleigh? He's of another generation.

So our next PM will be either Najib or Anwar. And if Najib is still in power when this global recession lifts, Anwar's chances are just about gone.